Project Name: Measurement and Prediction of Dynamic Density

Measurement and prediction of Dynamic Density (DD) has been the subject of much interest in recent years. Subsequently, this has led to a number of organizations partaking in research studies to develop metrics and validate their utility in the ATC domain. In November 1997 the first DD technical exchange meeting was held with various organizations currently studying sector complexity. Representatives from the William J. Hughes Technical Center (ACT-540), NASA Ames Research Center, Wyndemere, CSSI, CAMI, and CAN were present. Many of these organizations were already involved in developing tools and metrics to accurately determine and predict sector complexity based on various dynamic and static sector complexity characteristics. To accurately develop and validate these metrics, it was determined that each organization would require an extensive amount of data. To reduce costs and duplication of efforts, ACT-540 was tasked to conduct a DD Study in conjunction with the interested organizations.

At present, a pilot study for validating the DD equation developed by ACT-540 is planned. Following the pilot study, an extensive data collection effort is planned. This study will examine the validity of all available DD equations and metrics. The outcome of this validation will provide a single unified DD equation and/or metric.

DD is defined as air traffic complexity of a situation. Controller workload is dependent on the DD. DD attempts to capture the effects of all influencing variables that constitute air traffic complexity. These variables may include traffic flows, conflicts, number of aircraft, sector geometry, weather, etc. The RTCA Task Force 3 Report on Free Flight identifies a need to measure and predict DD to enhance the efficiency and flexibility of the NAS and accommodate the forecasted growth in traffic levels.

Objective and/or Problem Statement

Presently, ETMS data in conjunction with the monitor alert system is used for predicting if a sector will be overloaded in the near future. However, it is well recognized that a measure based solely on the number of aircraft is not adequate for predicting the complexity of air traffic.
A more precise measurement and prediction of DD will be useful for making decisions regarding:

• 1. Balance of workload among controllers,
• 2. Adjustment of sector configurations (e.g., combine, split, modify),
• 3. Staffing requirements for sectors,
• 4. Restriction of free flight operations, and
• 5. Holding restrictions.

Project Name: Operational Evolution Plan (OEP) Support

The FAA and the aviation community have developed an operational concept built upon Free Flight that describes operational improvements the community desires. To meet these expectations, the FAA has introduced an initiative, called the Operational Evolution Plan (OEP), which is geared to meeting the capacity demands of the aviation system for the next ten years. To meet this capacity objective, the FAA, working with aviation industry representatives, has identified a focused set of National Airspace System (NAS) improvements encompassing decision support systems, flight deck automation, weather prediction tools, data link, airspace changes, new runways, and operational procedures. OEP improvements are consistent with, and included in, the NAS Architecture that identifies services and capabilities to meet the Free Flight concept for 2015.

The OEP is a dynamic, comprehensive, and integrated picture of significant FAA capacity enhancement initiatives and goals that can be achieved. It represents a fundamental change in our approach to integrated planning by establishing a commitment to achievable goals that build one upon the other to ensure long term success. The OEP is the natural extension of the FAA’s approach to modernization, that of evolution rather than revolution.

The OEP is a “living document,” intended to adjust to new priorities and new technologies, and serve as an evolutionary path for maturing strategies and solutions. Version 5 of the OEP is scheduled for publication by the end of calendar year 2002; during the remainder of this year, potential candidate efforts and projects are being collected and evaluated for possible inclusion in Version 5.0. The current version of the OEP can be found on the FAA website at http://www.faa.gov/programs/oep/

During the development of the OEP, team members made a proposal to conduct a series of analyses including fast-time modeling and human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulations to measure performance of the NAS with selected OEP improvements in place. These activities, scheduled for 2003-2005, will use a set of operational scenarios to demonstrate/test how integrated OEP improvements increase NAS capacity to meet the challenges of terminal, surface, and en route congestion as well as terminal and en route weather constraints.

For these simulations, we will build upon lessons learned through earlier, complex simulations such as the FAA/NASA Air Ground Integration Experiment (AGIE) . FAA/NASA research and development results described in a series of human factors technical information meetings as part of the Interagency Air Traffic Management (ATM) Integrated Product team will be incorporated as needed. Results from FAA/Eurocontrol collaboration on Action Plan 5 resulting in recommended validation performance metrics and best practices for real-time human-in-the-loop simulations for validation of air traffic management initiatives will be incorporated as well.

Simulators will be configured with OEP tools and capabilities. This will be accomplished using laboratory and modeling capabilities at FAA, NASA, and various government and commercial sites. Real time data collection and dynamic data transfer will be enabled between facilities as needed to provide for multiple participants.

In a recent Quadrant Review, OEP quadrant managers noted that “it is essential that OEP solution sets operate compatibly across the spectrum of aviation participants.” Fast time and real time modeling and simulation provides a way to understand the interactions of dispatchers, controllers, and flow managers, with the introduction of multiple tools, airspace redesigns, and collaborative decision-making. It also provides a mechanism to better understand the synergistic effects that multiple capabilities can generate. HITL simulation supports the development of operational procedures, the identification and mitigation of potential human factors issues, the resolution of integration and interoperability issues with collocated capabilities, the identification of potential changes in flight deck and controller roles and responsibilities brought about with the transition to new technology and automation, and the determination of optimal airspace configurations to deliver capacity benefits.

Since the transition to a future state of the flight deck and NAS infrastructure is a major issue for pilots and controllers, training material will be developed and users will undergo prototype training as a means of helping to identify end-state training requirements. For human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulations, scenarios will be developed that represent traffic load and fleet mix based upon the expected configuration for the future NAS. These efforts will be kept consistent and closely aligned with other activities of the OEP.

Project Name: GPS Outage En Route Simulation (GOERS)

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is implementing the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) and is investigating potential implementation of the Local Area Augmentation System (LAAS). Both are intended to enhance the capabilities of the Global Positioning System (GPS) to enable its use as a navigation source for en route and terminal applications in the National Airspace System (NAS). A major benefit of GPS augmentation is its ability to provide a primary means of navigation for all phases of flight. This capability may allow some current ground-based radio-navigation aids (GBNAs) to be decommissioned. As a result, the unlikely event of GPS outages has become a concern. ACB-330 will conduct a GPS Outage En Route Simulation (GOERS) to provide an initial examination of the workload and operational issues associated with a controller’s ability to manage GPS outage situations under several reduced GBNA and mixed avionics environments.

Project Lead: Karen Buondonno