The Capacity Modeling & Analysis Group. Front row (left to right): Emily Guerrios, Janice Kay Cobb and Helen Monk. Center: Cassandra Miller and Ji’on Brown. Rear: Andrew Lamb, Douglas Frye, Jennifer Morris, Gary Renauro and Joseph Richie. Not in photo: John Zinna, Daniel Penrith, Megan James and Anthony Chiari.

Jennifer Morris, Capacity Modeling and Analysis Group manager, addressed the Southern Jersey Professional Societies’ first 2007 dinner meeting, on January 24, at Mays Landing Country Club. “Airspace & Airport Modeling & Simulation: Answering ‘What if’ Questions for the Next Generation Air Transportation System” was the topic of Morris’s talk, presented to the group, which includes members of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).

Capacity Modeling and Analysis Group analysts have been answering “What If” questions about new technologies and physical improvements for more than 30 years. The team provides technical expertise in fast-time computer simulation modeling and analysis to enable stakeholders to make decisions about changing airports and airspace to best meet the needs of future demand. The group has studied almost every major and medium-size airport in the United States. The team also has provided consulting to airports in Germany, Israel, Chile and South Korea.

The Capacity Group has a suite of fast-time simulation models, including: The Airfield Delay Simulation Model (ADSIM), the Runway Delay Simulation Model (RDSIM) and the FAA’s Airport and Airspace Simulation Model (commonly known as SIMMOD). The team is constantly enhancing the capabilities of its arsenal of models. Janice Kay Cobb developed the animation for ADSIM. John Zinna continues to improve the Airport and Airspace Simulation Model while Anthony Chiari expands the capabilities of ADSIM and RDSIM.

The specialized group developed a technique to measure the Annual Service Volume (ASV) of various airports throughout the country. Since 1999, the group has performed more than 120 ASV studies. Initially, the goal was to look at airports that were considering new runways. Other operational improvements also had been analyzed. Recently, the ASV studies have focused on the effects of incorporating NextGen technologies that would allow reducing in-trail arrival/arrival separations.

FAA Administrator Marion Blakey uses the information generated by the ASV studies in her annual report to Congress. In October, Vicki Cox, Air Traffic Organization Vice President of Operations Planning (ATO-P), recognized the completion of these important studies as one of ATO-P’s “significant accomplishments for FY06,” during her All Hands Meeting at the Technical Center. Analysts Doug Frye, Helen Monk and Gary Renauro were the project leads for two ASVs at Philadelphia, and one each at Memphis, LaGuardia and Oakland International Airports.

Just last year, the team studied three projects at Denver International Airport: de-icing scenarios, runway closure analysis and the addition of a seventh runway. Cassandra Miller served as the project manager for these efforts while senior analysts Gary Renauro and Doug Frye played an integral role in ensuring a quick response to the runway closure analysis study.

Recently, the Capacity Group worked closely with the Joint Planning Development Office by providing technical support to the Evaluation and Analysis Division. They were tasked to simulate the impact of reduced in-trail separations and the constraint of runway occupancy times. The Runway Delay Simulation Model (RDSIM) was used to model operations at San Francisco International Airport for this effort. The analysis of the fast-time simulation results indicated that although runway occupancy times did not seem to be a constraint with the current separations, decreased in-trail separations in combination with reduced runway occupancy times showed a greater benefit than simulations run with just the reduced separations alone.

The Capacity Modeling and Analysis Group was featured in magazine articles International Airport Review (September 2006) and the American Association of Airport Executive’s (AAAE) Airport magazine (October/November 2006), and in The Press of Atlantic City (April 26, 2006) for the impact of new large aircraft (i.e. A380) work being conducted at the Technical Center by Joe Richie and Dan Penrith.

A good crowd of both industry and FAA members, including Technical Center Director Wilson Felder, attended the South Jersey Professional Societies meeting. After the presentation, John Zinna gave a demonstration of the FAA’s Airport and Airspace Simulation Model (SIMMOD), showing the animation of Denver International Airport. Also, Andy Lamb demonstrated the animation in the Airfield Delay Simulation Model (ADSIM) that was used for Joseph Richie’s New Large Aircraft (i.e. A380) Impact Study at John F. Kennedy International Airport.

The presentation was followed by a question-and-answer session. Mike Greco asked what would be the single contribution of the Capacity Group to looking at the future with NextGen technologies. The key to meeting the demand of the future is maximizing the efficiency of today’s traffic at our nation’s airports. The Capacity Modeling and Analysis Group can assist by applying fast-time computer simulation and analysis techniques to model new technologies, physical improvements and operational procedures.