In-flight Icing Research Update: The Current Icing Product (CIP)
By Susanne Spincic
In-flight icing is considered a hazardous aviation weather phenomenon. Icing is a factor in fatal aircraft accidents and creates significant disruption to flight operations. When commercial carriers, especially regional carriers and commuter airlines, are rerouted to avoid icing, there is ripple effect throughout the National Airspace System (NAS). Diversions en route burn additional fuel and result in other costs for all classes of aircraft.
Small aircraft routinely operate at altitudes where temperatures and clouds are most favorable for ice formation, making these aircraft vulnerable to icing for long periods of time. Additionally, smaller aircraft do not typically have the anti-icing devices found on larger aircraft. Larger aircraft are at risk primarily during ascent from and descent into terminal areas. Icing can pose a danger to aircraft via structural icing leading to impaired flight dynamics.
The FAA Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP), ATO, Operations Planning, under the auspices of the In-flight Icing Product Development Team (PDT), has sponsored research into an in-flight icing diagnostic algorithm, known as the Current Icing Product (CIP). Scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) developed the CIP. The CIP diagnoses both probability and severity. The CIP Probability and Severity Products are graphical and provide a three dimensional (3-D) gridded icing product, produced hourly. Currently, the CIP Probability and Severity products are available through the Internet at the experimental Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) website.
The Aviation Weather Policy and Research Working Group (AWPRWG) scheduled the CIP Severity product for a D4 (NWS operational) decision in the fall. The goal of the AWPRWG Board, which consists of representatives from the FAA and the NWS, is to facilitate the transfer of weather products to operational suitability to implement in the NAS. To that end, the Flight Standards Flight Technologies and Procedures Division, Flight Operations Branch was interested in assessing the operational suitability of the CIP Probability and Severity product as both supplemental and primary weather products. A primary weather product is one that meets all the regulatory requirements and safety needs for use in making flight-related, aviation weather decisions, while a supplementary weather product may be used for enhanced situational awareness as long as it is used in conjunction with a primary product. The CIP Severity and Probability products were granted conditional operational status, based upon the results of this evaluation.
The Technical Center Weather Sensors Group conducted the evaluation, which analyzed the aeronautical decisions of pilot volunteers considering preflight and in-flight weather briefing scenarios and the pilots’ ratings of their perceived situational awareness and confidence level in the product data. Center observers interviewed the pilots to determine the readability, interpretability, and utility of the CIP products. A flight instructor observer assessed the pilots’ situational awareness and safety of flight.
The evaluation presented the pilot volunteers with one preflight and one in-flight weather-briefing scenario. Each scenario was presented twice, with and without the CIP products, and pilots were asked to make route, altitude, and go/no-go decisions focusing on the icing hazards. Center observers recorded the pilots’ route and altitude adjustments, flight decisions, and perceived situational awareness through interview questions posed during the scenarios. A flight instructor observer evaluated the pilots’ aeronautical decisions. The pilots completed a questionnaire to rate the readability, interpretability and utility of the CIP products and reported their confidence level in the product data.
The evaluation team was led by Starr McGettigan, Weather Sensors Group, and included Karen Peio (Raytheon) and Sue Spincic, Weather Processors Group. Many thanks go to the pilots from the Technical Center, as well as the general aviation and airline pilots, who volunteered their time and expertise. Recently, some of the volunteer pilots visited the Technical Center in order to see firsthand some of the Center’s aviation research and development programs.
Facilities Visited:
- Tower/TRACON (Bill Vaughan, John Wilks, Rodger Bawgus)
- Crashworthiness/Drop Test ( Allan Abramowitz)
- Free Flight Integration/Traffic Management Advisor - (Terence Moore)
- ADS-B (Mike McNeil, Mike Prata, Jack Beilmann)
- R & D Safety Overview (Jim Patterson, Nick Subbotin)
- Pavement Test Machine (Murphy Flynn)
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